Chief among these: consumer skepticism. Most people outside the transmission complexes continue their normal daily lives. And “recovery is critical to mission effectiveness.” Organizations need structures that protect time off and teams that make it possible for even their busiest members to take extended time off. In the most affected sectors, the number of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies rises throughout 2020, feeding a self-reinforcing downward spiral. 2. In practice, we are seeing countries and regions take divergent approaches to this question (Exhibit 4).
Although a consensus has emerged around the use of physical distancing to slow transmission in many high-prevalence settings, a few countries, such as Sweden, are pursuing an alternative “herd immunity” strategy focused on protecting the most vulnerable populations while using only limited distancing measures to flatten the curve for others. New research from the McKinsey Global Institute points to another area of hope in the face of the current crisis: a renewed social contract. Companies should invest in online as part of their push for omnichannel distribution; this includes ensuring the quality of goods sold online. Our new research takes a look at the challenges of creating a sense of belonging, common purpose, and shared identity when some people work in their homes and some in offices and factories. This week, we were delighted to sit down with two executives cutting remarkable paths through the pandemic. 14
We have a deep commitment to our purpose, which is to make your world a safer place. Another article considers the great reset’s tactical challenges, such as guarding against cyberattacks on remote workers. In the past week, four articles have captured the attention of leaders around the world. Finally, in the pandemic, many of us have spent more time with our children than we used to, and we’ve learned from them. Our 2020 research offered a perspective on the coming rebound in travel: how far, how fast, and where. An area where companies have already adjusted well is using technology to address changing work environments and to stay competitive. Our analysis suggests that a program of targeted reforms, including greater productivity in several sectors, can help the country produce the 90 million nonfarm jobs it needs to create by 2030. Software makers are also in the midst of (yet another) disruption. But as the civil unrest of 2020 showed, it has become increasingly urgent. Derek K. Chu et al., “Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis,”. We use cookies essential for this site to function well.
This week, our new research found that small and medium-size businesses in the United Kingdom face dire prospects: one in five may not survive past August 2020. Businesses are only as strong as the communities of which they are a part. Governments have launched unprecedented public-health and economic responses. This week saw some surprising news about a large COVID-19-vaccine trial: a leading candidate has an efficacy rate of about 90 percent. And Twilio CEO Jeff Lawson talked about how to close the communication gaps between business leaders and software developers in a conversation with senior partner Paul Roche and partner Shivam Srivastava. This demand is largely irrecoverable. Our recent article provides more details on contact tracing.
Finally, the new edition of the Five Fifty looks at healthcare, where ten promising innovations might speed effective responses to future pandemics and health crises. Blood donors frequently cite convenience and social pressure as prompts. Matt Craven As seen in: ERE, ... mckinsey.com — January 20, 2021 The past five weeks have brought an array of conflicting news on the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting our estimates about when the coronavirus pandemic will end. Select topics and stay current with our latest insights. Cluster analysis has revealed the importance and characteristics of so-called superspreaders (infected individuals who pass the disease to many others). While that’s highly positive news, McKinsey research also finds that the new vaccines are likely to accelerate only slightly the timetable to the end of the pandemic. Executives everywhere wonder how to bring people back to the workplace and how they will do their jobs. Also this week: we’ve added a special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital. Business heads showed more willingness to stay put. It is also having a growing impact on the global economy. More and more, successful organizations are finding ways for people to work in concert with new technologies. We offer insights to help educators curb losses and accelerate learning. Older people, especially those with underlying conditions, pull back from many activities. The next few weeks will be critical tests of our ability to “bend the curve” in more countries with varying contexts and healthcare capacity. They also considered the new challenges for innovation in consumer companies. A new video explains the logic. But for consumer goods and retail, a year like no other meant that the future showed up early, and in an ugly mood. The coronavirus crisis is a story with an unclear ending. Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, Images, Youtube and more on IDCrawl - the leading free people search engine. Global sales of light vehicles in 2020 might decline 20 to 25 percent from prepandemic forecasts. 10.
Also this week, a new McKinsey survey tapped the wisdom of hundreds of executives across a swath of industries on the need for speed (exhibit). One critical finding: as lives become hyperlocal, modes of transport will change. The world has cheered recent announcements about COVID-19-vaccine candidates. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials (July 6, 2020). And since COVID-19 vaccines are likely to be approved eventually, leaders may want to start now in preparing to deploy one effectively. Federal, state, and local governments can take a range of actions to both improve productivity and stimulate demand. The first priority is to mitigate and contain the outbreak. ), Elsewhere in the region, our latest CEO interview, with Peter Harmer of Insurance Australia Group, reveals new insights into “the CEO moment” afforded by the crisis. He has worked across five continents and with many of the leading global institutions in public health. Leaders can also take inspiration and new ideas from their peers. McKinsey’s healthcare researchers also took a close look at the US blood supply, which was fragile before the pandemic and is now critical. Don’t expect contact tracing to work perfectly initially; take a data-centric approach to improving operations and effectiveness over time. For more perspectives, please see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “chart of the day,” a curated collection of our first 100 articles related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
The pandemic continues to dominate global economic sentiment. Two standards must be met. This article reflects our view as of March 1st, 2020. Simulations should clarify decision owners, ensure that roles for each top-team member are clear, call out the “elephants in the room” that may slow down the response, and ensure that, in the event, the actions needed to carry out the plan are fully understood and the required investment readily available. Customers that have prebooked logistics capacity may not use it; customers may compete for prioritization in receiving a factory’s output; and the unpredictability of the timing and extent of demand rebound will mean confusing signals for several weeks. Six months after WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, the responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey suggest a positive shift in economic sentiment. Even as societies and businesses race to reopen, the global pandemic still poses significant problems. In our view, the prevalent narrative, focused on pandemic, to which both markets and policy makers have gravitated as they respond to the virus, is possible but underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome. It is imperative to ensure that the unprecedented commitment of resources and focus toward racial equity is channeled effectively, proves impactful, delivers a high return on investment for society, and brings about real progress for individuals and communities. Stakeholders face another hurdle to widespread vaccine adoption: some consumers remain skeptical of COVID-19 immunization. But carbon markets have a mixed track record. Also this week, McKinsey researchers focused on cash management through the crisis and on the problems of budgeting in healthcare systems. With all this in mind, we believe that leaders should closely watch five health-response dynamics in the coming weeks: The pandemic’s economic challenges are unprecedented. Related Articles . Resurgence seems to be not a question of if but when, where, and how bad. McKinsey is tracking developments on all these fronts. Our research for the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets, led by Mark Carney and Bill Winters, explains what’s needed. The financial system suffers significant distress, but a full-scale banking crisis is averted because of banks’ strong capitalization and the macroprudential supervision now in place. Even places with strong initial responses like Hong Kong and Singapore have faced challenges as they reopen.
Decisions about which measures to deploy, when and where, should be made locally—if possible, district by district—because there are material differences in the severity of the crisis and economic circumstances (Exhibit 4). In consumer goods, the steep drop in consumer demand will likely mean delayed demand. The abrupt halt of global travel during the COVID-19 crisis, aside from delaying personal trips and vacations, has had a major impact on businesses across sectors. 10
The year 2020 has been one of losses—around the world, and in the United States in particular.
The pandemic continues to expand. Takeout and delivery are here to stay, and restaurants are working to make those experiences better. This week, McKinsey also had the privilege of speaking with three CEOs about what is shaping up to be the defining moment in their careers. The COVID-19 pandemic brought that to a halt, forcing companies to innovate. A new national energy plan is a good sign; now, the challenge is to execute it. A delicate balancing act awaits these organizations as they work to ensure that customers receive the necessary support—and that lenders can continue to cultivate relationships with their borrowers—while preserving shareholder value in the longer term. For more perspectives, please see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “chart of the day,” a curated collection of our first 100 articles related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat. Also on that list: improving the experience of customers, many of them frightened, some jobless, and all of them deeply uncertain about the next normal.
Annie Lamont, managing partner of Oak HC/FT, shared her insights on what it and other trends mean for healthcare investing.
In the sixth year of our Women in the Workplace study, conducted in partnership with LeanIn.Org, we find that the effects of the COVID-19 crisis have exacerbated gender disparities and their implications for women at work, especially for mothers, female senior leaders, and Black women across America. One year ago this month, WHO declared a global pandemic. Auteur Matt Craven Documents disponibles écrits par cet auteur Hao-Yuan Cheng, Shu-Wan Jian, and Ding-Ping Liu, “Contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at different exposure periods before and after symptom onset,” JAMA Network, May 1, 2020, jamanetwork.com. In times like these, first movers do better than the competition by finding new pockets of growth and reshaping go-to-market approaches to serve them. A return to normalcy might come sooner, possibly in the first or second quarter of 2021. For example, there is some evidence to support the use of “proning”—placing patients face down—to reduce the need for mechanical ventilation. Combined, these interventions have provided an economic buffer and some initiatives have the potential to translate into long-term solutions to protect individuals from the immediate effects of future crises. Close proximity and poor airflow increase the risk of transmission, while the use of facial coverings decreases it. In our analysis, three broad economic scenarios might unfold: a quick recovery, a global slowdown, and a pandemic-driven recession. The country has experienced a deep humanitarian challenge, with more than 80,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths. We then highlight four of our many recently published articles, each designed to help senior executives think through the challenges of restarting economies. But the COVID-19 crisis threatens that progress; not only do all ethnic-minority groups have higher age-adjusted COVID-19-related death rates than white people do, but Bangladeshis and Pakistanis, in particular, are concentrated in occupations that have been hard hit by furloughs and layoffs. The checklist in Exhibit 3 can help companies make sure they are doing everything necessary. A new global survey of more than 800 executives reveals that companies are prioritizing business building for organic growth, launching new businesses at an accelerated rate and, in turn, growing faster. We asked teachers in eight countries to rate the effectiveness of remote learning between March and July of 2020. Content Commerce. Five years on, we assess the scant progress to date, blunted by COVID-19, and offer ten things that everyone needs to know about gender equality. 1. Also this week, the McKinsey Global Institute published the first of three reports that examine the postpandemic economy. And in Latin America, just 30 percent are optimistic, the lowest figure globally. Even countries that have been successful in controlling the epidemic (such as China) are forced to keep some public-health measures in place to prevent resurgence. See our interactives about the scenarios and the surveys here. But today, the sector is in trouble. In the second, we look closely at private equity, in which gender and racial diversity are stronger in entry-level positions than in more senior roles. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners
September 27, 2020 September 27, 2020 admin. In the latest Future of Asia Podcast, our experts delve into the question of whether ASEAN can maintain that track record after the difficult challenges of COVID-19. Consumers are less anxious and depressed about health concerns. In Indonesia, the pandemic is still raging; case counts and fatalities are rising sharply. 6
By Matt Craven, Adam Sabow, Matt Wilson mckinsey.com — The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed overlooked weaknesses in the world’s infectious-disease-surveillance and -response capabilities—weaknesses that have persisted in spite of the obvious harm … Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats. In other words, the pandemic will not be vanquished soon, and businesses will continue to be challenged. GDP contracts significantly in most major economies in 2020, and recovery begins only in Q2 2021. Posted on 17/03/2020 01/11/2020. Another momentous shift: customers care more about sustainability: our survey finds that European consumers want fashion firms to act responsibly by considering their social and environmental impact.
The resulting demand shock cuts global GDP growth for 2020 in half, to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent, and pulls the global economy into a slowdown, though not recession. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners
Three-layer surgical masks provide the next greatest protection. McKinsey research intently continues to examine the progress of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development and distribution. Sarun Charumilind, Matt Craven, Jessica Lamb, Adam Sabow, and Matt Wilson | McKinsey. Yuki Furuse et al., “Clusters of coronavirus disease in communities, Japan, January–April 2020,” Emerging Infectious Diseases, September 2020, Volume 26, Number 9, pp. While these companies accounted for only 16 percent of the industry’s growth in 2015–18, that figure rose to 39 percent in 2018–19—and reached 55 percent in the first three weeks of April 2020. In 51 pages, we document the current situation, the economic outlook, the forces shaping the next normal, and the new organizational structures that can help companies sustainably keep pace. In a crisis, it’s all hands on deck. That said, the picture these surveys paint is complex. They can start by drawing up and executing a plan to support employees that is consistent with the most conservative guidelines that might apply and has trigger points for policy changes. Significant resources are required to run a program of testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine at the required scale, but relative to the economics of lockdowns or global recession, these costs are trivial. our use of cookies, and
Digital upends old models. Traffic congestion and residential-property sales are close to where they stood in early January 2020. Please see the full collection of content, visual insights from our “chart of the day,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles, and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the coronavirus outbreak. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. At McKinsey, we took a crack at it and developed a new explainer for the younger crowd. While some real challenges remain, such as lower than usual availability of migrant labor, there is little question that plants are returning back to work quickly. Continuing to expand testing, as described later in this article, is a big part of improving surveillance. Africa, Oceania, and some Asian countries also experience widespread epidemics, though countries with younger populations experience fewer deaths in percentage terms. The racial wealth gap has profound consequences, for families and the US economy, which misses out on between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in GDP output each year. China’s share of new cases has dropped from more than 90 percent a month ago to less than 1 percent today. Our perspective is based on our analysis of past emergencies and our industry expertise. Cette section est vide, insuffisamment détaillée ou incomplète. The COVID-19 crisis has been emotionally challenging for many people, changing day-to-day life in unprecedented ways. Despite the apparent simplicity of testing and tracing, practitioners learned the hard way through early missteps. The influence model can help. Experts Ed Barriball and Susan Lund explain the research finding that, on average, companies can expect a disruption to their production lines of one to two months—a very long time—every three-and-a-half to four years. We see six domains for engagement: The COVID-19 outbreak began in Asia—but so have early indications of containment, new protocols, and the resumption of economic activity.
In the COVID-19 crisis, many companies are finding new leaders in unexpected places, well down the org chart. For more perspectives, please see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “chart of the day,” a curated collection of our first 100 articles related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat. Our new report argues that insurtechs’ new, pandemic-oriented products and digital capabilities—not least the ability to reach millions of customers within a few months—mean that a programmatic approach to M&A is the surest strategy to overcome the industry’s structural weaknesses. This 172-page volume is the first of five edited collections produced to accompany Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The coronavirus outbreak is having a growing impact on the global economy. For a look at how a century-old fashion firm is preparing, see our interview with Tiger of Sweden’s CEO. Another sector thinking hard about its future is infrastructure. The case is complete when you consider the urgent need to slow the destruction of the natural world. In our new edition of McKinsey for Kids, we attempt to return the favor by taking a look at the food distribution system and food waste. For more perspectives, please see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “chart of the day,” a curated collection of our first 100 articles related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat. Reimagining the workforce is another pressing task. Mike Henry, CEO of BHP, similarly tells us that prioritizing people and building strong relationships has boosted the company’s resilience. And our industry researchers took a look at African banking in the new reality and the path forward for European grocers. Among the ideas: take advantage of the stunning developments in e-commerce. Matt is a leader of McKinsey’s work in infectious diseases and public health within our Social, Healthcare and Public Sector Practice. and classic lateral-flow immunoassays already in use for many viral and antibody tests, new technologies such as CRISPR
Since the crisis began, McKinsey has published more than 70 articles on the extraordinary public-health and economic impact, as well as the ideas that government and business leaders need to safeguard lives and livelihoods. McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world.
Each country’s program is a complex system of component parts, and the challenge is making sure a weakness in one area doesn’t delay or derail everything else. Has working from home succeeded only because it is viewed as temporary, not permanent? You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “chart of the day,” a curated collection of our first 100 articles related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat. Demand has proved highly variable and may remain so for some time; company performance has been all over the map, even within the same category; growth soared in 2020, and large companies captured a big chunk of it (exhibit); and most costs will likely remain higher in 2021. This week, McKinsey healthcare researchers documented the shortage of medical oxygen in developing countries, a long-standing problem made worse by COVID-19. Chips control everything from toys and smartphones to laptops and thermostats. are piloting or using this approach to monitor for COVID-19, wastewater remains an underutilized tool globally. On the economic front, the COVID-19 crisis presents the greatest challenge in a decade for the auto sector. “Proning COVID-19 patients reduces need for ventilators,” Columbia University, July 2, 2020, cuimc.columbia.edu. These challenges also worry business leaders seeking the next normal. Airlines have already experienced a steep fall in traffic on their highest-profit international routes (especially in Asia–Pacific). This week, we looked more closely at the problems in vaccine distribution. For consumer companies, the future is about three things: getting better at predicting demand, being alive to all the ways they might increase their sales, and using agile techniques to sustain the hard-won momentum. India could become one of the first places in the world to experience heat waves that, in extremis, exceed the survivability limit for healthy people. In our experience, seven actions can help businesses of all kinds. Some countries appear to be at the peak of infection and are urgently building surge capacity in their health systems. Our ongoing research on the US racial-wealth gap and on diversity and inclusion is intended to clarify some of the underlying issues and potential paths forward. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964.
Many top teams do not invest time in understanding what it takes to plan for disruptions until they are in one. In many US localities, for example, COVID-19 beds will be full by December 7, based on current trends (exhibit). Companies everywhere are reckoning with the first-order effects of the pandemic and trying to anticipate those of the second order. For retailers—particularly grocers, apparel companies, and restaurants—the way forward starts with new ideas about revenue management (a fundamental rethink of products, pricing, and promotions might be in order) and about operating models (especially store footprints, which will depend on how soon cities reopen). Here’s a sampling of the tips on offer: In a companion piece, McKinsey experts spoke with Admiral John Richardson, former US chief of naval operations, about how to lead during long-term crises marked by deep uncertainty. Governments have not lost sight of their purpose, but fulfilling it has become much more difficult. Address supply-chain and logistical challenges to keep expanding testing access until most cases are being detected. For many people, those beaches are a major part of the allure of ASEAN countries, along with sunshine, great food, and history. Our latest research shows a particularly effective bridge for governments to consider: real estate. That would raise a significant barrier to achieving gender parity in leadership roles in years to come. No nation has escaped widespread disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic, but some have fared better than others. Oil and gas, for instance, will be adversely affected as oil prices stay lower than expected until Q3. Demand is likely to return to 2019 levels within one to four years, with electricity and gas rebounding fastest (Exhibit 1). Across Asia, and the world, work is changing as digitization and automation spread. But a crisis has a way of bringing things to a head: the coming months might be the best opportunity in memory for healthcare companies to pursue exponential innovation, which could create an additional $400 billion in value by 2025. First, many investors still take a long-term perspective; they are looking ahead to the end of the pandemic. That’s one way the captain avoids being the ship’s “single point of safety.” If the captain is indispensable, he or she is also overstretched and will inevitably make a mistake. In the final memo of the series, we distill the lessons from successful government-change programs in a set of tactical ideas for leaders to consider. What distinguishes them, in a word, is agility. With vaccinations underway, executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. 8
The answer has to start with their current tenants. In the United States, normalcy is not likely until the second quarter of 2021, and herd immunity is not likely until the third quarter. have already been granted emergency-use authorization by the US Food and Drug Administration. Unleash their potential. To reach herd immunity, our analysis suggests adoption ranges would need to be greater than those of vaccines for the flu and other diseases (Exhibit 2). The first three installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation, a 130-page report on the path to true transformation, and a 206-page report on reimagining the postpandemic organization—are available now. 13
Our industry research focused on semiconductors and the industries that make and use advanced electronics. Some companies aren’t thinking through the second-order effects of their policies. The McKinsey Global Institute’s new report looks at the skills revolution that the country needs to keep raising its standard of living. This article is intended to provide business leaders with a perspective on the evolving situation and implications for their companies. Start with the global pandemic’s front line: the healthcare sector. Our new report lays out what it will mean for companies to switch from running on adrenaline to making organizational speed a permanent part of their cultures. In two new podcasts, McKinsey experts spoke with our editors about grief, loss, and burnout at work—and about America’s behavioral health crisis. They gave it an average score of five out of ten (Exhibit 1). 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